Crabs and Cancer
How many undiscovered anti-cancer drugs exist in marine species?
It’s an argument oft heard in conservation circles: Endangered ecosystems are chock full of chemical compounds that could be the next big blockbuster drug — but these life-saving compounds are lost every time a species goes extinct. Estimating the financial value of biodiversity, however, has been a complicated calculation. Now, researchers have put a number on the potential value of marine biodiversity to the cancer drug industry, and it’s a very, very big one.
A number of researchers have estimated the value of medicines from tropical forests, coming up with estimates ranging from a few billion dollars to more than $400 billion. Just one study, however, has tried to put a price tag on “marine natural products” (MNPs), and it suggested that a single Jamaican coral reef held compounds that could be worth $70 million. But researchers at the University of North Carolina, Wilmington, wondered what a worldwide number might look like for just one class of medicines: anti-cancer drugs.
To find out, the three researchers took a close look at how many MNPs are already in the drug development pipeline, how many more might exist out in the ocean, and the drug industry’s typical “hit rate” in transforming compounds into useful drugs. Overall, they report in Ecological Economics, a literature survey revealed 118 MNPs in pre-clinical trials, 22 in clinical trials and 2 MNP-based drugs that have already reached the market. But that’s just a tip of the iceberg, they conclude. Marine species hold another 253,120 to 594,232 novel chemicals that could be drugs, according to a model based on past studies, and 90.4% to 92.6% of these compounds remain undiscovered. These compounds could ultimately produce 55 to 214 new anti-cancer drugs, they estimate, with most coming from marine animals and microbes. The bottom line, they calculate, is that MNP-based cancer drugs could be worth from $563 billion to $5.69 trillion.
Although the estimate is fraught with potentially problematic assumptions, it reveals “a new and substantial at-risk ecosystem service value,” the authors conclude. “The simple and pressing issue is that the loss of natural resources tied to biodiversity is permanent.” Just a 20% loss of marine biodiversity, for instance “equates to a market value loss of $112 billion–1.14 trillion.” And “this forfeiture accounts only for anti-cancer medicines,” they note, and doesn’t include the many other potential values of marine organisms. – David Malakoff | November 6, 2010
Source: Erwin, P., López-Legentil, S., & Schuhmann, P. (2010). The pharmaceutical value of marine biodiversity for anti-cancer drug discovery. Ecological Economics DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.09.030
Image © Taner Yildirim | Dreamstime.com
